Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/10. – Balancing the effects of the Ukrainian war: the development of the Chinese economy in 2022


The Chinese economy grew by 8.1% in 2021. Growth in the fourth quarter was 4.0%, exceeding earlier estimates by analysts who had predicted an average GDP of 3.6% for the final quarter of the year. The year 2022 appeared to be a challenging but favorable year for China’s economic development prior to the war in Ukraine and the recent outbreak of the Covid 19 pandemic. Pandemic measures had been successful so far, and the Winter Olympics were also a success, however, the recent flare-up of the COVID-19 pandemic made the results of the Zero- COVID-19 policy questionable. In early 2022, getting people to consume more seemed to be the only problem for China’s economic policymakers, but the war in Ukraine has created an entirely new environment in which new challenges and opportunities have emerged with economic sanctions against Russia. This analysis focuses on the new challenges for the Chinese economy in 2022, but before that, we briefly look at how China coped with economic stagnation during the global pandemic in 2020 and how economic recovery was taking shape in 2021.

Keywords: China, economic development, COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery

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