• Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/10. – Balancing the effects of the Ukrainian war: the development of the Chinese economy in 2022

    Abstract

    The Chinese economy grew by 8.1% in 2021. Growth in the fourth quarter was 4.0%, exceeding earlier estimates by analysts who had predicted an average GDP of 3.6% for the final quarter of the year. The year 2022 appeared to be a challenging but favorable year for China’s economic development prior to the war in Ukraine and the recent outbreak of the Covid 19 pandemic. Pandemic measures had been successful so far, and the Winter Olympics were also a success, however, the recent flare-up of the COVID-19 pandemic made the results of the Zero- COVID-19 policy questionable. In early 2022, getting people to consume more seemed to be the only problem for China’s economic policymakers, but the war in Ukraine has created an entirely new environment in which new challenges and opportunities have emerged with economic sanctions against Russia. This analysis focuses on the new challenges for the Chinese economy in 2022, but before that, we briefly look at how China coped with economic stagnation during the global pandemic in 2020 and how economic recovery was taking shape in 2021.

    Keywords: China, economic development, COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/9. –  The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economies of the Middle East and the Great Powers

    Abstract

    Oil has remained a key energy source in the 21st century, and price volatility is having a significant impact on the economies of countries around the world. At the time of the pandemic, demand for oil plummeted due to the slowdown in economic activity. However, oil prices have risen sharply since then, well above the USD 100 a barrel level, thanks to a strong post-closure economic recovery. As the economy grows, so does the demand for oil. Nevertheless, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are generating supply-side fears. All of this is contributing to both rising inflation and concerns about economic recovery.

    Keywords: Middle East, economy, oil, inflation

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/8. – About the importance of energy resources in the Caspian Sea in the light of the Russian-Ukrainian war

    Abstract

    The Caspian Sea region is one of the world’s oldest oil producing areas, which is expanding and becoming an increasingly important global energy source. The region has significant oil and gas reserves, both in the coastal areas of the Caspian Sea and in onshore deposits in its basin. Whether Caspian countries are able to export more oil and gas depends on how fast domestic energy demand grows in those countries and whether they are able to build additional infrastructure to export to global markets, as well as how the costly projects to develop Caspian resources are able to attract the right amount of capital. It is also a question of the role that Caspian energy resources will play in supplying energy to Europe and Asia in the economic crisis that surely lies ahead.

    Keywords: Caspian Sea, oil, energy

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/7. –  The economy of Japan

    Abstract

    Japan is one of the largest and most developed economies in the world, with a well-educated and hard-working workforce, and its population makes it one of the largest consumer markets in the world in terms of size and standard of living. Its post-World War II economic growth was unprecedented. Japan was the second largest economy in the world from 1968 until 2010, but the emerging China has overtaken. This briefing looks at the question of whether the revival of the Japanese economy will be successful and the country will preserve its outstanding ranking in the world economy.

    Keywords: Japan, economy, GDP, COVID-19

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/6. – The Indian Economy in the Spring of 2022 in the Light of the Russia-Ukraine War

    Abstract

    While the world economy is recovering from the coronavirus outbreak, it has recently been shaken by the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is also affecting the economic development of India, a global player. The rise in commodity prices and the disruption of trade chains have triggered a new wave of crises, which is not expected to be as severe as the COVID-19 crisis. The aim of this analysis is to provide a brief overview of the state of the Indian economy and its prospects in the spring of 2022 in light of recent economic indicators.

    Keywords: India, economy, coronavirus epidemic, Russia-Ukraine war, crisis

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/5. – Present and future of the Western Europe-Western China

    Abstract

    In Eurasia, there are currently a number of global projects aimed at expanding economic cooperation between countries on the continent. Most of these initiatives are related to China and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and aim to optimize the logistics of the movement of goods. One such project is the construction of the Western Europe-West China Transport Corridor (WE-WC). The goal of this study is to examine where the WE-WC transportation and trade corridor is under construction today. The impact of the route on the economies of the countries involved in the project and how WE-WC will affect the economic potential of the cities and regions involved in the project, the quality and development of transport infrastructure.

    Keywords: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, freight transport, transport corridor

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/4. – Turkey as the gateway to East and West

    Abstract

    Turkey’s position in the world economy has undergone fundamental changes over the past decade. London-based Standard Chartered, a multinational banking and financial services company predicts that Turkey will become the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2030, which, given recent developments and economic indicators, seems far from impossible. At the same time, it has become an unavoidable factor in the global energy market and is occupying an increasingly prominent position in terms of energy security. Today, Turkey is not only a cultural gateway to the East and the West, but has also become a key player in both its economic and energy supply.

    Keywords: Middle East, Turkey, Turkish Council, Economy, TANAP, Southern Gas Corridor

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/3. – The consequences of Covid-19 in the Philippines and future prospects for the development of the Philippine economy
    Abstract

    As in other countries around the world, the coronavirus epidemic has had a major impact on the economy of the Philippines. The crisis has also called into question the achievements of the Dutertenomics programme launched in 2016, while the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte has done its utmost to mitigate the effects of the crisis. The analysis aims to review the economic consequences of the crisis in the Philippines, the government response and the state of the economy in the light of the latest data.

    Keywords: Southeast Asia, Philippines, coronavirus epidemic, Dutertenomics, economic development

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/2. – Singapore’s economy in 2021 – Raising from the ashes?
    Abstract

    Several peculiarities of the Singaporean economy stand out clearly: the size of the economy, the focus on business services and technological development, and the unique exchange rate system, etc. For this reason, it is worth taking a look at how the Singapore economy responded to the economic crisis triggered by the COVID‑19 pandemic and how the economy recovered in 2021. This brief analysis looks at the country’s key economic indicators – GDP, inflation, the general budget and trade. Before that, however, we briefly examine the situation of the pandemic, which has a direct impact on the economy.

    Keywords: Singapore, Covid-19 pandemic, macroeconomy analysis

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  • Eurasia Center Brief Analysis EC/2022/1. – Where is Japan heading?

    Abstract

    Japan is the third largest economy in the world, however, it seems that nowadays Japan has been stuck in an economic time wrap and failed to keep pace with the growth it has seen around in Asia. In 2021 the country faced numerous challenges, not only because Japan was hosting the Olympic Games, but the country also got a new prime minister r/ight before the elections, which took place in October. However, Japan’s everyday life was about how to deal with the coronavirus epidemic, the Japanese people and government had been in constant struggle with the epidemic and its waves. After a brief overview of Japan’s last year, this paper analyzes where Japan and the Japanese economy are heading under Fumio Kishida’s presidency to and what can we expect from Kishidanomics?

    Keywords: Japan, Fumio Kishida, coronavirus, Kishidanomics, new capitalism

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